Probably Stolen price modifiers
Updated
Probably Stolen item prices can change through market events, trading modifiers, bargaining, and the Heat of stolen goods. The fan-run market events page on Probably Stolen Wiki says events can raise or lower prices across categories including food, water, medical supplies, materials, energy cells, weapons, and armor. These Probably Stolen price modifiers operate at different stages: some affect categories, some affect a trade, and stolen goods have Heat-based buying discounts and reputation multipliers.
Probably Stolen price modifiers from market events
Market events change prices by category, with increases or decreases possible for food, water, medical supplies, materials, energy cells, weapons, and armor. The event modifier applies to a category, so the category effect is only one part of an item's final quote. Item condition, other modifiers, and bargaining also affect the actual quote, as the fan-run market events page explains.
The trading calculation combines an item's base value and combined parts with market modifiers, fixed additions, and contents, then applies final adjustments such as bargaining discounts. The Probably Stolen wiki page on trading and bargaining describes this sequence. When asking what changes item prices, keep the stages distinct: a market category effect contributes to the market stage, while bargaining can adjust the final result.
The market stage includes retail bonuses, supplier premiums, and ordinary merchant purchase price pressure. The market modifiers in that stage are added together, according to the trading and bargaining page. That means a market quote can reflect more than one modifier at once; the source describes additive combination at this stage, rather than giving a single universal event rate for every item.
Two event-related cases have specific limits. Cruise ship docking has no category price modifier, and Vending Fountain sale prices are unaffected by event modifiers, according to the market events page. Those details help separate general event effects from these stated exceptions, without changing the broader point that events can move prices for the listed categories.
The market events page lists 15 events in the current random pool, plus two event definitions that the page says are not drawn by the normal random rules. Cooldown starts when an event ends. A 2-day duration does not guarantee exactly two customers.
| Event | Default duration | Cooldown | Draw weight | Trade modifier shown by the event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad harvest | 3 days | 3 days | 15 | Food +50% |
| Seeds stolen | 2 days | 3 days | 15 | Food +33%; seeds +50% |
| Counterfeit medical supplies discovered | 2 days | 3 days | 15 | Medical supplies +50% |
| Water plant failure | 3 days | 3 days | 15 | Water, water rations +100%; drinks +90%; water purification supplies +80% |
| Water plant scheduled maintenance | 2 days | 3 days | 15 | Water, water rations +35%; drinks +30%; water purification supplies +25% |
| Ice asteroid miners return | 2 days | 3 days | 15 | Water, water rations −25%; drinks −20%; water purification supplies −15% |
| Mining expedition returns | 1 day | 3 days | 15 | Materials −25% |
| Secret storeroom discovered | 1 day | 3 days | 15 | Household goods −20% |
| Construction project | 3 days | 3 days | 15 | Materials +30% |
| Power shortage | 2 days | 3 days | 7 | Energy cells +66% |
| Power plant overhaul | 1 day | 3 days | 10 | Energy cells +33% |
| Station-wide blackout | 2 days | 3 days | 4 | Energy cells +100%; weapons +25% |
| Cruise ship docking | 2 days | 3 days | 10 | No category price modifier; adds a visitor action |
| Oximmo addiction rising | 2 days | 5 days | 6 | Medical supplies +25% |
| Lower-deck mob lynching | 1 day | 10 days | 8 | Weapons, armor +33% |
| Nutrifruit harvest (not in random pool) | 3 days | 3 days | not drawn | Food −20% |
| Meteor shower (not in random pool) | 3 days | 3 days | not drawn | Materials +50% |
Market premiums by difficulty
The same trading and bargaining page lists the market-stage premiums and price pressure for each difficulty. These figures are added together in the market stage, not applied as one multiplier to every seller.
| Economic rule | Easy | Normal | Hard | Challenge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail market bonus | +20% | +15% | 0 | 0 |
| Weekly supplier market premium | +50% | +50% | +100% | +150% |
| Hi-tech smuggler market premium | +50% | +50% | +100% | +150% |
| Retired supplier market premium | 0 | +15% | +30% | +45% |
| Ordinary merchant purchase price pressure | −10% | −15% | −20% | −25% |
Probably Stolen price multipliers in bargaining
Bargaining can change both the amount offered and the prices involved in a transaction. The Bargain panel lets you offer a markup, demand a discount, or blackmail criminal customers for better prices, as described by the GitM guide to Probably Stolen tips. The GameWikiStation bargaining page gives specific blackmail and markup figures.
Blackmail takes 20% of the value and has a 60% base chance of acceptance. A relevant station event adds 15 to the acceptance chance, while reputation contributes to blackmail success divided by 4. These are separate parts of the blackmail calculation described by GameWikiStation; the event bonus and reputation contribution both matter to the acceptance attempt.
Markup uses a different reputation contribution: reputation is divided by 6 for markup success, and a markup receives a 15 event bonus. A customer walking away costs 3 reputation. Those figures make bargaining outcomes relevant beyond the immediate price, since a failed interaction can also have a stated reputation cost.
The trading and bargaining page says successful confrontation adds a price reduction at the market stage. Successful extortion or threatening a true cyborg changes purchase and sale prices. These are distinct outcomes, and the source does not give a numeric percentage for those effects, so the reliable takeaway is the direction or kind of change stated for each action.
- Use the Bargain panel to offer a markup, demand a discount, or blackmail a criminal customer.
- Blackmail takes 20% of the value, with a 60% base chance of acceptance.
- A relevant station event adds 15 to blackmail acceptance chance; reputation contributes to blackmail success divided by 4.
- Markup receives a 15 event bonus, and reputation contributes to markup success divided by 6.
- A customer walking away costs 3 reputation.
| Modifier or condition | Price effect stated |
|---|---|
| Market event category modifier | Can raise or lower prices for food, water, medical supplies, materials, energy cells, weapons, and armor. |
| Item condition | Affects the actual quote. |
| Retail bonus | Included among market-stage modifiers. |
| Supplier premium | Included among market-stage modifiers. |
| Ordinary merchant purchase price pressure | Included among market-stage modifiers. |
| Successful confrontation | Adds a market-stage price reduction. |
| Successful extortion | Changes purchase and sale prices. |
| Threatening a true cyborg | Changes purchase and sale prices. |
| Neuroactive perfume | Increases a customer's trade gain. |
| Pheromone perfume | Increases a customer's trade gain; its effect cannot stack with neuroactive perfume. |
| Blackmail | Takes 20% of the value; base acceptance chance is 60%. |
| Relevant station event for blackmail | Adds 15 to the chance that blackmail is accepted. |
| Reputation in blackmail | Contributes to success divided by 4. |
| Reputation in markup | Contributes to success divided by 6. |
| Markup event bonus | Adds 15. |
| Customer walks away | Costs 3 reputation. |
| Fake Hemingway cigarette pack confrontation | Lowers the price if the counterfeit is spotted and the customer is confronted. |
| Supply Runner on rent day (player report) | Sells at a 50% markup. |
| Ordinary merchant purchase price pressure | −10% to −25% by difficulty (see the premiums table above) |
| Stolen goods at Heat 25 or lower | Buying discount is 10% off; reputation multiplier is ×1.5. |
| Stolen goods above Heat 75 | Buying discount is 25% off; reputation multiplier is ×3. |
Heat, trade items, and merchant prices
Heat changes the buying discount for stolen goods, and the stated endpoints are 10% off at Heat 25 or lower and 25% off above Heat 75. The Probably Stolen wiki page on stolen goods also says reputation multipliers vary by Heat, from ×1.5 at Heat 25 or lower to ×3 above Heat 75. These are two separate Heat-related price and reputation effects.
The stolen goods page gives those endpoint conditions, so use the stated thresholds as written when comparing them. At Heat 25 or lower, the buying discount is 10% off and the reputation multiplier is ×1.5. Above Heat 75, the buying discount is 25% off and the reputation multiplier is ×3. The listed figures do not provide intermediate values.
A merchant's ordinary buying price and a specific trader's sale price are also described separately. The GitM tips page says a merchant buys at a 15% discount, while the Supply Runner sells at a 50% markup on rent day. These figures describe different sides of a transaction: a merchant buying an item and the Supply Runner selling one.
Trade gain can also be affected by perfume. Neuroactive perfume and pheromone perfume each increase a customer's trade gain, but the two effects cannot stack, according to the trading and bargaining page. That rule makes perfume an influence on customer trade gain, while the source does not provide a numeric increase for either perfume.
Our take on Probably Stolen price modifiers
The clearest way to read Probably Stolen price modifiers is to follow the pricing stages and identify which kind of change a rule describes. The item's base value and combined parts feed into the calculation alongside market modifiers, fixed additions, and contents; final adjustments can include bargaining discounts. Category events and market-stage pressure sit within that broader calculation. Probably Stolen price modifiers describe several stages, so identifying the stage helps explain why one effect may change a category quote while another affects a trade or final adjustment.
The numeric details are strongest for specific bargaining and stolen-goods cases: blackmail takes 20% of value, its base acceptance chance is 60%, a relevant station event adds 15, and the listed Heat endpoints specify both buying discounts and reputation multipliers. Other rules state that a price changes without giving a percentage, such as successful confrontation, extortion, and threatening a true cyborg. Keep those effects separate from the numeric rates. Probably Stolen price modifiers include both stated percentages and effects described without a percentage, and those details should be read as separate kinds of information.
For a practical quote, check the item's category and condition, then account for other modifiers and bargaining. A category event may raise or lower prices, but the actual quote also depends on item condition, other modifiers, and bargaining. Market-stage modifiers are added together, and later adjustments can include a bargaining discount. This reading keeps the stated effects connected without assuming a single modifier explains the whole price. Probably Stolen price modifiers are easiest to follow when the category effect, market stage, and final adjustment are considered in sequence.
Frequently asked questions
What Probably Stolen price modifiers change item prices?
Item prices reflect base value and combined parts, market modifiers, fixed additions and contents, and final adjustments such as bargaining discounts. The actual quote also depends on item condition, other modifiers, and bargaining.
Do Probably Stolen price modifiers affect every item?
Market event modifiers apply to categories such as food, water, medical supplies, materials, energy cells, weapons, and armor. Cruise ship docking has no category price modifier, and Vending Fountain sale prices are unaffected by event modifiers.
How do Probably Stolen price modifiers work for stolen goods?
The buying discount is 10% off at Heat 25 or lower and 25% off above Heat 75. Reputation multipliers vary by Heat from ×1.5 at Heat 25 or lower to ×3 above Heat 75.
How much does blackmail change a price in Probably Stolen?
Blackmail takes 20% of the value and has a 60% base chance of acceptance. A relevant station event adds 15 to acceptance chance, while reputation contributes to blackmail success divided by 4.
What does the Bargain panel let me do?
The Bargain panel lets you offer a markup, demand a discount, or blackmail criminal customers for better prices. Markup receives a 15 event bonus, reputation contributes to markup success divided by 6, and a customer walking away costs 3 reputation.
Do perfumes stack to increase trade gain?
Neuroactive perfume and pheromone perfume increase a customer's trade gain, but their effects cannot stack. The stated effect is an increase to trade gain, with no numeric amount given.
What does a merchant pay for an item?
Ordinary merchants buy at a price pressure of −10% to −25% by difficulty, according to the trading and bargaining page. Separately, the Supply Runner sells at a 50% markup on rent day, so these figures apply to different trade directions. Probably Stolen price modifiers also include those distinct buying and selling effects.