Probably Stolen haggling and bargaining

How the Probably Stolen bargaining step works

Probably Stolen haggling happens through the Bargain panel during eligible trades. You can ask for a discount when buying or offer a markup when selling, and the panel also offers a demand discount that costs reputation for each item if it works, plus blackmail against criminal customers. Barter offers cannot be negotiated, according to the All Things How guide and the GITM guide.

The first distinction is whether your offer is a concession or a request for a better price. Selling at a discount is always accepted on price: the sale price falls by the chosen percentage, while the customer's budget rises by twice that percentage. A request to raise the selling price or reduce the buying price instead requires a success roll, so the result is uncertain (trading and bargaining terms).

A practical way to read the panel is to ask what each choice gives up. A discount gives the customer more budget and lowers your proceeds; a markup or buying discount asks the other side to accept a less favorable price. The game frames haggling as a route to a better deal, but the trade-off is built into each bargain (Steam store page).

• For a sale discount, choose the percentage you are willing to give up; the price reduction is guaranteed, and the customer's budget increases by twice that percentage.
• For a selling markup or a buying discount, treat the request as a roll rather than a guaranteed price change.
• For barter, proceed without bargaining because barter offers cannot be negotiated.

Price moves allowed in Probably Stolen haggling

Probably Stolen haggling allows four price directions: lower your selling price, raise your selling price, pay more when buying, or ask to pay less when buying. The trading and bargaining terms explain that lowering a sale price and paying more when buying are always accepted on price, while the two requests for a better price depend on a success roll (trading and bargaining terms).

A sale discount has a predictable exchange. If you choose a discount percentage, the sale price drops by that percentage and the customer's budget rises by twice as much. That makes the concession more than a simple reduction in your proceeds: it also changes the budget available to the customer for the trade.

A markup on a sale asks the customer to pay more, while a discount on a purchase asks the seller to accept less. Larger bargaining amounts are harder to succeed with and make the customer more likely to leave, so a bigger request has both a steeper roll and a greater chance of ending the conversation (trading and bargaining terms).

Other situations can affect the price or discount available. The GITM guide says a price can drop if you catch a fake, with counterfeit cigarettes as its example, and that buying everything a seller has, which the game calls wholesale buying, can earn you a discount. Those examples describe specific trade circumstances, while the Bargain panel covers asking for a discount or offering a markup during eligible trades.

What changes the outcome of a bargain

The outcome of a bargain depends on the size of the request, reputation, customer budget, and other factors. Larger bargaining amounts are harder to succeed with and increase the chance that the customer leaves; reputation contributes more to blackmail success than it does to a price markup (trading and bargaining terms; Bargaining system fan wiki).

Reputation also interacts with concessions and successful profit bargains. A successful profit bargain changes the trade reputation multiplier to a negative value, while an active concession adds a reputation bonus when the original multiplier is positive. That means the result can affect how the trade relates to reputation as well as its price (trading and bargaining terms).

Blackmail and threats are distinct options with stated risks. Blackmail takes 20% of the value and has a 60% base acceptance chance; a relevant station event adds 15 to that chance. Blackmailing an innocent person can cost reputation and may make them leave, while an unsupported threat carries the same risks (Bargaining system fan wiki).

Customer budgets and other factors also affect whether a bargain is accepted, so reputation alone does not determine the result. The Bargaining system fan wiki says reputation matters more for blackmail success than for a markup, which gives you a reason to weigh the type of request before choosing it. A high-stakes demand and a modest price adjustment do not draw on reputation in the same way.

Our take on Probably Stolen haggling

Probably Stolen haggling is easiest to assess by separating guaranteed concessions from risky requests. A sale discount always changes the price and customer budget as described, while markups and buying discounts depend on a roll. That distinction gives you a clear first question at the Bargain panel: are you accepting a known cost, or asking the other side to accept a worse price?

The available options also connect price decisions to reputation and the chance of losing the customer. A larger request is harder to land and makes a walkout more likely, while concessions and successful profit bargains can change reputation effects. Blackmail and threats add specific acceptance odds or risks, so their listed terms matter more than treating them as ordinary price offers.

A useful reading of the system is to match the bargaining method to the situation described by the game. A discount is the predictable route when you choose to lower a sale price; a markup or buying discount is a request with an uncertain outcome; blackmail and threats carry their own conditions and consequences. Keeping those differences in view makes the Bargain panel’s trade-offs easier to compare without assuming that any single option is always best.

Frequently asked questions